Last year proved to be one of the most noteworthy 12 months for nuclear since the start of the industry. Until recently it was a turnaround largely unthinkable over decades of decline. But might the coming year prove to be even more remarkable for astonishing atomic energy?
There can be no doubt that 2023 came to an end with a surge of optimism for the nuclear industry. The high-profile turnaround in sentiment toward the technology so clearly demonstrated at COP28 was an obvious highlight, but capped what was by any reckoning a standout year for nuclear. It’s a year that was all the more remarkable considering the decades-long general decline of the industry bar a few hotspots of development.
The drivers behind this transformation in perception are well known. The profound energy security implications of the on-going conflict in Ukraine – now nearing its second awful year – has sharpened policy focus to a degree that was unthinkable previously. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine a time when the energy status quo was so shaken since the oil crises of the 1970s which, coincidentally, saw nuclear development soar to reach its greatest height.
With no signs of the conflict ending any time soon, security of energy supply is likely to remain at the top of the policy agenda for the foreseeable future. The energy density of nuclear fuel means energy security considerations hold much promise for nuclear power plants which need refuelling relatively occasionally and can easily store several years of fuel on site.
Of course, another major factor in this turnaround is the climate crisis and the growing evidence of the very real impact of climate change that is making itself felt with ever increasing vigour. Much of the world seemingly spent last year on fire, in a blazing heat wave, underwater, or all three. As one of the few despatchable clean energy resources available, nuclear offers incontrovertible advantages and that is also being increasingly recognised by policy makers. Notable at COP28, the US has played a significant role in getting the ball rolling and driving this policy shift. Its Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and similar measures explicitly support nuclear power as one of a suite of energy generation tools that must be fully deployed to meet pressing climate change goals and the Net Zero target. Similarly, the EU is also recognising nuclear generation as a green alternative to fossil fuels.
And, given the obvious response that nuclear power can deliver in the face of the most pressing energy challenges the ambition of many nations to expand nuclear capacity – or even start on their own nuclear journey for the first time – makes a lot of sense given the compelling arguments in favour of nuclear generation. It also makes the decisions by some nations to abandon nuclear seem even more bizarre. Spain for example has recently confirmed it will shut down the nation’s nuclear plants by 2035.
Last year proved to be one of the most noteworthy 12 months for nuclear since the start of the industry. Until recently it was a turnaround largely unthinkable over decades of decline. But might the coming year prove to be even more remarkable for astonishing atomic energy?
Despite outliers like Germany and Spain though, there is clear momentum building behind new nuclear. Even assuming that the argument for hearts and minds is already largely won though, the next critical step is to turn that positive sentiment into solid action. A fleet of new low-cost and on-time nuclear reactors won’t just appear out of the ether without solid long-term measures to engender that goal. It must be recognised that there are many challenges to overcome if nuclear is to meet its potential contribution to the global energy system. The full supply chain from fuel production and raw materials through to design, engineering and operating staff needs radically uprating, waste management and long term disposal still needs to be fully addressed, the list goes on. Nuclear power also needs to deliver energy at a reasonable cost and in a timely way. There will no doubt be winners and losers along the journey too, but as an industry there’s every reason to start 2024 optimistic and enthusiastic for what the next 12 months will bring. They could yet prove to be decisive.
By David Appleyard, Editor, Nuclear Engineering International
