Canada is a geographically vast country of almost 10 million square kilometres with a relatively small population (~41 million). That dichotomy, along with its natural wealth of fossil fuels, creates unique challenges as the country works to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement, its own legislated Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, and the changing expectations of world markets that increasingly factor in non-financial measures, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Decisions on energy policy, especially electricity, are largely the purview of the country’s 13 diverse provinces and territories. They range in size from tiny Prince Edward Island at under 6,000 square kilometres to the vast 1.5 million of Quebec. Similarly, populations range from about 40,000 in the least populous territory (Nunavut) to about 16 million in Ontario, representing about 40% of the country’s population with related GDP.
All to say, it is a country of diverse composition, climate, cultures and energy needs, making a national energy strategy complex. Despite a wealth of clean electricity sources, including hydro in several provinces, electricity only accounts for about 20% of the total energy used in Canada. The remaining 80% comes primarily from fossil fuels.
Electrification is a major strategy for many provinces looking to decarbonise sectors like transportation, buildings and industry. Consequently, demand is spiking and existing electricity sources cannot keep up. Compounding this, several provinces are competing globally to become hubs for data centres, life sciences and the types of manufacturers, like automakers, which have high energy demands but now come looking not only for cheap power, but also low-carbon content.
For many Canadian jurisdictions, that means taking a new look at nuclear energy. Now offered in a range of sizes and designs almost as diverse as the country itself, nuclear is gaining interest in corners of the country that had not previously considered it.
New nuclear options open possibilities
Several major nuclear vendors are already marketing their products in Canada, spanning the size range from a 5 MW micro reactor up to traditional large-scale new build. Across the spectrum, they are being considered to support Canada’s biggest economies’ on-grid needs, regional power needs, heat and power to replace diesel in remote communities along with industrial-specific heat and power options for Canada’s resource extraction and heavy industry like steel. By way of an example, a November 2023 report by the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) and the Nuclear Innovation Institute (NII) calculated that making green steel in Canada would require more than four times the amount of electricity currently used by the sector.
What new nuclear will actually look like in Canada really depends on the vantage point. Below are some key jurisdictions and their status:
Ontario
Canada has been a Tier-1 nuclear nation dating back to the first half of the 20th Century with the heart of its technology design and generation program in Ontario. Most recently, Energy and Electrification Minister Stephen Lecce says the province’s ambition is to become an energy “superpower” with enough electricity to meet its own rapidly growing demands and to ramp up exports of energy and technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs). In announcing a new integrated energy strategy, Oct. 23, the minister stated, “For the first time in legislation the province will prioritise the role of reliable, affordable and zero-emissions nuclear power generation to meet future increases in demand.”
As the country’s most populous province with its large business and industrial base, the use of baseload electricity from nuclear has made sense since the first Pickering Nuclear commercial unit started operation in 1971. In recent years, as much as 60% of the province’s electricity has come from the province’s three nuclear plants: Ontario Power Generation’s Pickering and Darlington Nuclear stations in Durham Region, adjacent to Toronto and the Bruce Power site in southwestern, Ontario.
Chalk River Laboratories, where CANDU (PHWR) technology was developed through a partnership between researchers at federally owned Atomic Energy Canada Ltd. and the province’s electric utility operator in the 1940s to 1960s, is also located in Ontario, a couple of hours outside Ottawa, the country’s capital.
Today, Ontario has 12,844 MW of CANDU generation capacity. One other province (New Brunswick) and six other countries also operate CANDU reactors, helping provide the economies of scale to support research, education and supply chain infrastructure. The sector employs about 89,000 people in Canada’s nuclear industry, many of those jobs based in Ontario.
It’s a history the current Ontario government has been keen to leverage for their low-carbon economic strategy. Over a decade and a half, the province has been working through a series of choreographed mid-life refurbishments on the Darlington and Bruce reactors, some of which will operate into the mid-2060s. That work will continue well into the next decade with the latest plan to also refurbish the four newest Pickering reactors that came online in the early-to-mid 1980s. With new technologies and increasing expertise in refurbishment project management, everything old is new again.
But CANDU is no longer the full story for Ontario. It is also home to the most advanced SMR project of any OECD country at its Darlington Nuclear site. If completed to plan, four GE Hitachi 300 MW BWR reactors will operate alongside Darlington’s existing (and soon fully refurbished) four CANDU reactors, with the first SMR coming online in 2029. Accomplishing a first-of-a-kind SMR deployment is part of the provincial government’s export strategy.
But refurbishments and the Darlington SMRs are still not nearly enough. In an October 2024 report, Ontario’s electricity system operator said the province’s electricity demand will grow by 75% by 2050. It had already predicted at least an additional 17,800 MW of nuclear energy would be needed in that timeframe to meet demand growth. The latest estimates and the government’s “superpower” plans could push that higher.
The projections, domestic and global have caught the attention of large nuclear players. AtkinsRéalis, the license holder of CANDU technology has been ramping up its nuclear division engineering staff and working on the design and marketing of its CANDU MONARK reactor. Westinghouse, now owned by two major Canadian energy players, Cameco (uranium mining and processing) and Brookfield (asset management and renewable energy), has also headquartered in Ontario, marketing a range of designs from its micro reactor geared to remote and industrial applications right up to its APR 1000.
Both companies’ reactors are being examined as part of the Bruce C nuclear expansion, now undergoing an impact assessment in consideration of an additional 4,800 MW of nuclear energy. Bruce Power is currently the largest operating site in Ontario with eight CANDU units, expected to produce up to 7,000 MW when fully refurbished.
In between micro and massive, sit several other vendors, including X-energy with reactor options that include the 80 MW Xe-100 (with potential for a 320 MW four pack) that could be ideal for regional or industrial uses, as illustrated by its partnerships with both Dow and Amazon in the United States.
X-energy signed a framework agreement with OPG in 2022 to explore opportunities for industrial applications. All of this is supported by one of the world’s most primed supply chains, busy at home but also marketing its expertise, honed by years of refurbishments, to the world.
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan has long been one of the largest uranium producers and exporters, globally. The business has seen an uptick with growing global interest in nuclear energy. However, until recently, Saskatchewan did not consider nuclear as part of its own energy mix. That changed when the provincial utility, SaskPower began investigating SMRs, including a 2017 memorandum of understanding with Ontario Power Generation.
Most recently, in September 2024, SaskPower announced it was forming a subsidiary company SaskNuclear to advance the province’s SMR project through the regulatory and licensing process. A final decision on whether to proceed is expected by 2029. Earlier this year, the province announced sites in the Estevan area as likely candidates for the first SMR.
Alberta
As Canada’s oil and gas capital, Alberta has some of the greatest decarbonisation challenges as it tries to balance the value and need of its natural resources against GHG reductions. Further, it has diversification ambitions that include becoming a data centre hub that will likely require a switch to low-carbon electricity given its current mix of primarily gas and coal. Nuclear reactors, of various sizes and designs, could help both on-grid electricity and industrial decarbonisation goals.
Several developments over the past few years have included:
- 2019: A memorandum between Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and New Brunswick to cooperate on SMR advancement;
- July 2023: A mandate letter to Alberta’s minister of energy includes SMR development, including encouraging oil sand operators to explore SMRs as a decarbonization option;
- January 2024: Agreement between Ontario Power Generation and Capital Power for SMR development in Alberta; and
- March 2024: Alberta announces it is considering conventional scale reactors for on-grid electricity.
New Brunswick
Aside from Ontario, New Brunswick is the only province currently using nuclear in its energy mix. The province, home to about 850,000 people, gets about 30% of its electricity from a single 660 MW CANDU reactor but still has a long way to go to decarbonise the remainder of its electricity grid and overall energy use. Its provincial utility NBPower was an early proponent of advanced reactor development and continues to investigate SMRs as part of the province’s future.
The federal connection: Policies influence outcomes across the country
While provinces may be the traditional decision makers on electricity and electrification, increasingly private sector is recognising an opportunity to employ stand-alone nuclear and hydrogen amongst other decarbonisation strategies in their operations. The federal government plays an instrumental role influencing the decisions of both.
After decades of lukewarm acknowledgement of the industry, Canada’s current Liberal government came out with increasing unequivocal support for nuclear energy in the past several years, citing the important role it will play in pushing back GHG emissions and climate change. The support has included investment in research, education and development as well as tax credits and loan guarantees helping to spur investment.
Internationally, Canada has been a major presence in OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) nation-to-nation collaboration, including an OECD-NEA led initiative where more than 20 countries signed on to triple nuclear by 2050.
As well, Canada has worked bilaterally with both the United States and the United Kingdom on various initiatives to further advance areas like regulation and fuel security. In part, the strengthening of Canadian nuclear policy can be attributed to the US Inflation Reduction Act and new opportunities for nuclear investment south of the border.
A key file to watch right now is Canada’s siting of a repository for spent fuel waste. The organisation tasked with this, the Nuclear Waste Management Organization, has been working through a consent-based process with communities for more than a decade. Site selection is anticipated by year’s end. In 2023, the federal government also announced plans to move forward with strategy development for permanent disposal of the country’s low and intermediate level waste. Well understood and supported waste management is considered a key enabler of the country’s new nuclear programmes.
Canada is set for an election within the next year and the industry will be watching to see whether there is a change in government, and if so, a change in direction. On the latter, the hope is the feds, of whatever stripe, will stay the course. And, because of the over-sized influence of the US, the same can likely be said for the November 2024 US election.
