South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE) has announced finalisation of the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply & Demand 19 months after initiating the process in July 2023. The plan is updated every two years and outlines demand forecasts and supply plans for the next 15 years. The government originally planned to establish one small modular reactor (SMR) and three large nuclear plants by 2038.
The plan was intended to be finalised by the end of 2024, but faced delays after the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) pressured the government to scale back the share of nuclear power in favour of renewables, threatening to block the National Assembly’s review. The DP has held political dominance since the December martial law crisis which resulted in the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. As a result, the plan to build three 1.4GW large nuclear plants (APR-1400s) was reduced to two, with solar energy filling the gap.
A key factor influencing the 11th Basic Plan is the projected the rapid growth in electricity demand due to advanced industries including artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors. According to MOTIE, the electricity demand from the semiconductor industry is expected to reach 15.4 GW by 2038. The demand from data centres, initially estimated at 1.4GW in the 10th plan, has been revised to 4.4 GW. Additional demand from the expansion of electric vehicles and the electrification of industry and daily life is projected to reach 11 GW.
To address this increase MOTIE calculated that 10.3 GW of new power supply facilities will be needed by 2038. The government plans to significantly expand both nuclear and renewable energy facilities. Renewable energy generation capacity is to increase from 39 GW in 2025 to 121.9 GW by 2038, with solar accounting for 77.2 GW and wind for 40.7 GW. The initial draft had projected 119.5 GW of renewable energy. Additionally, a 0.7 GWe SMR will be established between 2035 and 2036, and two large nuclear plants will be constructed between 2036 and 2038.
By 2036, all 28 ageing coal power plants will be phased out and converted to LNG plants. Between 2036 and 2038, 12 coal and LNG plants reaching the end of their operating life will be replaced with non-carbon sources such as pumped storage and hydrogen. Ongoing nuclear power plant projects will proceed as planned. These include Saeul (formerly Shin Kori) units 3&4 and Shin Hanul units 3&4.
If the plan is realised, the share of non-carbon power generation will increase from 39.1% in 2023 to 53.0% in 2030 and to 70.7% by 2038. The nuclear share will rise to 31.8% by 2030 and to 35.2% by 2038. The renewable share is expected to be 18.8% in 2030 and 29.2% in 2038. Korea currently operates 26 nuclear power reactors, with four under construction.
