The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) World Energy Outlook 2024 forecasts only modest nuclear capacity growth to 2050. The 396-page report includes just one small paragraph specifically dedicated to nuclear.
“Today’s geopolitical tensions and fragmentation are creating major risks both for energy security and for global action on reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” IEA says. “The world is set to enter a new energy market context in the coming years, marked by continued geopolitical hazards but also by relatively abundant supply of multiple fuels and technologies.”
The World Energy Outlook 2024 considers three scenarios. The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) provides an outlook based on current policy settings, including energy, climate and related industrial policies. The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes all national energy and climate targets made by governments are met in full and on time. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) looks at what must be done to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Nuclear generating capacity increases from 416 GWe in 2023 to 647 GWe in 2050 in the STEPS scenario. While global nuclear generation increases from 2,765 TWh in 2023 to 4,460 TWh in 2050, its share of total electricity production decreases from 9% to 8% over the period. In the APS scenario, nuclear generating capacity increases to 874 GWe in 2050, while in the NZE scenario it reaches 1,017 GWe. Overall, the share of nuclear power remains close to 10% in all scenarios.
The report acknowledges that policy support for nuclear power has also risen in recent years. In December 2023, more than 20 countries pledged to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. Notable developments in several European countries include extending operations for existing reactors in Belgium, lifting a ban on developing new nuclear plants in Switzerland, the identification of new builds as a priority in Sweden and Poland, and confirmation of the importance of nuclear in France. “Many countries are showing interest in small modular reactors and the first projects outside China and Russia are expected to come online around 2030.”
There is also an important role for new nuclear plants, which provide 6% of the additional capacity that becomes available in the STEPS scenario. However, the majority of this is in emerging markets and developing economies, 40% of which is in China. In advanced economies, extending the life of existing reactors where feasible remains the most economical way to maintain a stable nuclear fleet that contributes to a secure and affordable supply of electricity.
The section on nuclear notes: “In countries open to the technology, nuclear power can be an important source of low emissions electricity. It currently provides 9% of global electricity. It can offer baseload power, enhance grid stability and flexibility, and optimise grid capacity utilisation, making it a valuable part of a portfolio of low-emissions technologies designed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
In 2023, five new nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 5.5 GW began operations in Belarus, China, Korea, Slovak Republic and United States. Combined with the 1.6 GW of existing reactors that were restarted after suspended operations, this more than offset the 6.3 GW of nuclear capacity retirements in 2023, resulting in a net increase of operational nuclear capacity. Through the first nine months of 2024, 4.5 GW of new nuclear capacity has been connected to the grid from new nuclear reactors in China, India, United Arab Emirates and United States.
Over the same period, construction started on seven other reactors: five in China, and one each in Egypt and Russia. As of October 2024, there were 62 reactors with around 75 GW of capacity under construction, which would increase worldwide nuclear capacity by nearly 20% when connected to electricity systems. Nuclear capacity and generation are set to increase in each scenario, albeit at a slower pace than several other low-emissions power technologies. Emerging market and developing economies drive this growth, notably China, which accounts for 40% of global nuclear capacity additions in the STEPS by 2035 and almost 50% in the NZE Scenario. These projected additions mean that China is on track to have the largest nuclear power capacity in the world by around 2030 in each scenario.
The report says small modular reactors (SMRs) are under development in several advanced economies, including Canada, France, Japan, Korea, United Kingdom and United States. It notes that “China and Russia are also developing them”, without acknowledging that the only operating SMRs in the world are, in fact, in Russia and China. IEA says that if SMRs “can be brought successfully to market at reasonable costs, they could provide new opportunities for nuclear power in more markets around the world”.
The IEA warns that the world “is facing perilous times”. Escalating conflict in the Middle East and the continued war in Ukraine “have global attention sharply focused on some of the world’s most important energy-producing regions”. While some of the acute impacts of the global energy crisis have receded, “geopolitical uncertainty is exposing the underlying fragilities of the global energy system, regardless of technology or geography”.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “In the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample – or even surplus – supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, would move us into a very different energy world from the one we have experienced in recent years during the global energy crisis.”
The report finds that while low-emission sources are set to generate more than half of the world’s electricity before 2030, demand for all three fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – is still projected to peak by the end of the decade. IEA warns that despite growing momentum behind clean energy transitions, the world is still a long way from a trajectory aligned with its net-zero goals.
